Administrator
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Suppose there are two boxes A and B, with components A1 & A2, and B1 & B2, respectively.
Let D(x) denote the event that component x is defective and N(x) be the event that component x is not defective.
Probability that exactly one box contains exactly one defective component
= (Probability that box A has exactly one defective component - Probability that both boxes A and B have exactly one defective component)
+
(Probability that box B has exactly one defective component - Probability that both boxes A and B have exactly one defective component)
= 2 (Probability that box A has exactly one defective component - Probability that both boxes A and B have exactly one defective component) -- By symmetry
= 2 (Probability that box A has exactly one defective component (1 - Probability that box B has exactly one defective component)) -- By independence of the defectiveness of components
= 2((Pr(D(A1), N(A2)) + Pr(N(A1), D(A2))) (1-(Pr(D(B1), N(B2)) + Pr(N(B1), D(B2))))
= 2((3/8)(5/8)) = 15/32
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